双语:谈一谈上半年我国经济增长的含金量

摘要

Full Text: The Value of China’s Economic Growth in the First Half of 2019

宁吉喆在《求是》杂志发表署名文章《谈一谈上半年我国经济增长的含金量》

谈一谈上半年我国经济增长的含金量

The Value of China’s Economic Growth in the First Half of 2019

 

宁吉喆

Ning Jizhe

 

今年上半年,我国经济实现了6.3%的增长,国民经济继续运行在合理区间,民生福祉不断改善,转型升级稳步推进,发展后劲持续增强,经济高质量发展取得新的进展,为实现全年经济社会发展预期目标奠定了较好基础。6.3%的增长速度,是在全球经济贸易增速放缓和我国经济下行压力加大的情况下,通过深化供给侧结构性改革、创新宏观调控、优化营商环境、大规模减税降费、激发市场主体活力而实现的,是一个来之不易的增速。同时,6.3%的增速在全球主要经济体中位居前列,而且这是就业总体平稳、物价基本稳定、质量不断提高的增长,是可持续的增长、有后劲的增长,体现了总体平稳、稳中有进态势,具有成色高、含金量足的特征。

 

In the first half of this year, China’s economy grew by 6.3% and continued to operate within a reasonable range. Public wellbeing improved continuously, transformation and upgrading progressed steadily, the stamina of development continued to strengthen, and new progress was made toward high-quality growth, thereby laying sound foundations for meeting this year’s economic and social development targets. The growth rate of 6.3% did not come easily, but was achieved despite decelerating global economic and trade growth and mounting downward pressure on China’s economy. It was a result of our efforts to boost supply-side structural reform, create new methods of macro-control, improve the business environment, slash taxes and fees, and unleash the vitality of market entities. Ranking high among the world’s major economies, this growth rate comes from overall stable employment, basically steady prices, and constantly enhanced economic quality, thus being both sustainable and enduring. Featuring a high level of quality and value, this growth rate shows that China’s economy remains stable overall with a positive trend.

 

一、生产需求稳定增长,发展韧性明显增强

I. Production demand grew steadily, and development became significantly more resilient.

 

今年上半年,按照中央经济工作会议精神和《政府工作报告》部署,积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策和就业优先政策有效实施,更高水平、更大力度对外开放不断深化,大规模减税降费扎实落地,企业融资成本逐步降低,有力有效应对内外部挑战,我国经济在高基数基础上实现了较快增长,经济运行保持在合理区间。

 

During the first half of this year, in line with the guiding principles of the Central Economic Work Conference and the arrangements of the Report on the Work of the Government, we effectively implemented a proactive fiscal policy, a prudent monetary policy, and an employment-first policy, opened up at a higher level and with greater intensity, took solid steps to slash taxes and fees, and gradually reduced enterprise financing costs. Taking a strong and effective stance against internal and external challenges, China’s economy grew rapidly from a large base figure, and continued to operate within a reasonable range.

 

经济增速位居世界前列。对于一个大型经济体来说,经济增长速度与经济总量有很大关系,总量越大,基数越高,实现高增长越难。2018年我国经济总量超过90万亿元,按年平均汇率折算达到13.6万亿美元,稳居世界第二位,占世界经济总量的比重接近16%。在较高的经济总量基础上,今年上半年国内生产总值同比增长6.3%,继续保持中高速增长。从全球范围看,我国经济增速位居世界主要经济体前列,在世界经济增长趋缓的大背景下格外亮眼,继续成为推动世界经济增长的重要引擎。而且,以这样的增长速度计算,我们一年的经济增量就相当于一个中等规模发达国家的经济总量。在国际环境复杂严峻、国内经济下行压力较大的情况下,我国经济能够继续保持6%以上增长,表明我国完全有条件、有能力、有信心应对各种风险挑战,实现经济社会发展主要目标。

 

1. China’s economic growth ranked among the highest in the world.

 

For a large economy, its growth rate is closely related to its size – the larger the size and base figure, the more difficult it is to achieve rapid growth. In 2018, China’s GDP exceeded 90 trillion yuan, or US$13.6 trillion as calculated at the yearly average exchange rate, ranking second globally and accounting for nearly 16% of the world economy. Based on the relatively large size of its economy, China’s GDP saw a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in the first half of this year, maintaining a medium-high growth rate. China’s economic growth ranked high among the world’s major economies, which was particularly striking against a backdrop of decelerating global economic growth, growth for which China continued to be an important engine. This growth rate means that China’s economic growth in a single year is equal to the entire economy of a medium-sized developed country. In a complex and daunting international environment and facing considerable downward pressure on the domestic economy, China’s economy has been able to maintain a growth rate of more than 6%, indicating that China has the conditions, ability, and confidence to surmount all risks and challenges and achieve its main goals for economic and social development.

 

产业持续发展。乡村振兴战略深入实施,农业供给侧结构性改革积极推进,夏粮生产喜获丰收,农业生产形势较好。上半年,第一产业增加值同比增长3.0%。夏粮产量2835亿斤,比上年增加59亿斤,增产2.1%,与历史产量最高的2017年持平;夏粮单产每亩359公斤,比上年增长3.5%。大规模减税降费深入推进,金融对实体经济支持力度加大,经营环境逐步改善,有效缓解工业生产压力。上半年,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%;41个大类行业中,39个行业增加值保持同比增长;605种主要工业产品中,有366种产品产量实现同比增长,增长面达60.5%。服务业持续较快增长,转型升级加速推进,上半年服务业增加值同比增长7.0%,明显快于工业增速;服务业商务活动指数均位于53.0%以上的较高景气区间。

 

2. Industries continued to develop.

 

The rural revitalization strategy was fully implemented, agricultural supply-side structural reform was actively advanced, and agricultural production remained favorable with a bumper summer grain harvest. In the first half of this year, the value added of the primary industry saw a year-on-year increase of 3%. The summer grain output was 141.75 million metric tons, an increase of 2.95 million metric tons or 2.1% over last year, equaling the record high of 2017. The output of summer grain per mu (0.067 hectare) was 359 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. We worked hard to slash taxes and fees, intensified financial support for the real economy, and gradually improved the business environment, which effectively eased pressure on industrial production. In the first half of this year, the value added of industrial enterprises, each with an annual income of 20 million yuan or over and hereafter referred as large-scale enterprises, saw a year-on-year increase of 6%; 39 out of 41 major types of industries maintained year-on-year increases in value added; 366 out of 605 major industrial products, or 60.5%, achieved year-on-year increases in output. The service industry continued to grow quickly while transformation and upgrading also accelerated; its value added in the first half of this year saw a year-on-year increase of 7%, which was remarkably faster than that of the manufacturing industry; and its business activity index flourished at above 53%.

 

需求稳中有增。我国拥有近14亿人口,中等收入群体规模世界最大,市场空间巨大,加之适应居民需求的有效供给逐步增多,为消费扩大创造了良好条件。上半年,社会消费品零售总额同比增长8.4%,教育、健康、养老、体育、旅游等领域服务消费增势喜人。清明节、劳动节假日期间全国旅游人数、旅游收入均保持两位数增长。聚焦短板加快重大项目建设,消除民间投资隐性障碍,推进制造业转型升级,投资增长趋稳。上半年,固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长5.8%,其中制造业投资和基础设施投资分别增长3.0%和4.1%。我国坚持多边主义,坚定维护自由贸易,与世界各国经贸往来稳步扩大。上半年,货物进出口总额增长3.9%,其中出口增长6.1%,保持较快增长。

 

3. Consumer demand grew amidst stability.

 

With a population of nearly 1.4 billion, China is home to the world’s largest middle-income group and boasts a huge market. In addition, we have gradually increased effective supply according to consumer demand in order to create favorable conditions for the expansion of consumer spending. In the first half of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 8.4% year-on-year, with consumption of services such as education, health, elderly care, sports, and tourism growing strongly. The numbers of tourists and revenue from tourism during the Qingming Festival and May 1st Labor Day holiday periods both maintained double-digit growth. We focused our efforts on economic weaknesses to accelerate the development of major projects, removed invisible barriers to private investment, and promoted transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, thus stabilizing investment growth. In the first half of this year, investment in fixed assets (excluding that of rural households) grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with investment in the manufacturing sector and in infrastructure increasing by 3% and 4.1% respectively. China has upheld multilateralism, resolutely safeguarded free trade, and steadily developed economic and trade relationships with all countries. In the first half of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 3.9%, with export maintaining the faster growth rate of 6.1%.

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  • 版权声明 本文源自 求是, 整理 发表于 2019年12月6日14:59:34