陈德铭部长在“《财经》年会2013：预测与战略”上的主旨演讲（中英对照）

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A Keynote Speech by Chen Deming at CAIJING Magazine Annual Conference

商务部部长 陈德铭

Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce

2012年11月28日 北京

November 28, 2012, Beijing

女士们、先生们、朋友们：

Ladies and gentlemen, friends,

大家中午好！

Good afternoon!

　　时值年终岁尾，方方面面都开始盘点今年的收成，筹划来年的发展。借这次《财经》年会举办的机会，很高兴与大家共同分析2012年的世界经济和中国经济，并就即将到来的2013年形势谈点看法。

As 2012 is drawing to a close, all circles of society are beginning to analyze achievements of 2012 and making plans for the coming year. By the opportunity of the CAIJING Magazine Annual Conference, I would like to take advantage of the conference to discuss world economy and China's economy in 2012, and comment on the situation in 2013.

　　一、中国经济特别是对外经贸在逆境中实现了平稳发展。

I. The Chinese economy, especially foreign trade and economic cooperation, has achieved stable development amid the difficulties.

今年世界经济呈现低迷振荡的走势，基本印证了我们年初的预计。发达经济体失业率居高难下，经济增长乏力；新兴市场国家面临较大通胀压力，经济增速明显放缓；欧洲主权债务危机不时掀起新的波澜，引发国际金融市场剧烈波动，给世界经济复苏带来极大不确定性。在多种因素的共同作用下，世界经济下行压力加大，预计全年仅增长3.3%，比去年低0.6个百分点。世界贸易量仅增长2.5%，比去年低2.5个百分点，远低于过去15年6%的年均增速。跨国直接投资额约为1.6万亿美元，比2007年2.1万亿美元的历史高点下降大约25%。

As it was predicted in the beginning of the year, the world economy has been showing signs of depress in 2012. The unemployment rate in the developed economies remains high, with weak economic growth; the emerging economies are facing great pressures of inflation, with slow economic growth; European sovereign debt crisis is getting worse, triggering volatility in global financial market, causing tremendous uncertainty of world economic recovery. Multiple factors resulted in greater downward pressures for world economy, and it is predicted that the annual growth in 2012 is only 3.3%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of 2011. Global trade volume rose by only 2.5%, 2.5 percentage points lower than that of 2011, far less than the average annual growth rate of 6% over the past 15 years. Transnational direct investment was about US$ 1.6 trillion, 25% lower than that of US$ 2.1 trillion in 2007, the highest on record.

　　面对严峻复杂的国际经济形势，中国政府加强和改善宏观调控，着力稳增长、调结构、抓改革、惠民生，取得了积极成效。前三季度，我国国内生产总值同比增长7.7%，完成全年7.5%或以上的增长目标已成定局。在外部需求萎靡不振的背景下，中国政府及时出台了遵循世贸规则，稳定外贸增长的一系列政策措施，广大外贸企业加大结构调整和市场开拓力度，外贸保持了稳定增长。前10个月进出口总值达到3.2万亿美元，同比增长6.3%；全年增速可能低于预期目标，但在全球市场上的份额仍有望保持稳定甚至有所上升；对外贸易结构持续优化，机电产品出口、中西部地区出口以及对新兴市场国家出口的比重进一步上升。我们努力改善投资环境，创新利用外资方式，优化外资的产业结构和区域布局，前10个月实际使用外资达到917.4亿美元，虽然同比下降3.5%，但上半年已经超越美国暂居世界第一；扣除房地产因素，服务业实际使用外资同比实现正增长，中西部地区实际使用外资保持较快增长。我们完善政策法规，加强规划引导、公共服务和权益保护，鼓励各类所有制企业“走出去”，前10个月非金融类对外直接投资581.7亿美元，增幅达到25.8%。

The Chinese government has strengthened and improved macro-control amid the complex and tough international economic situations, focusing on stabilizing growth, adjusting structures, promoting the reform and benefiting people’s livelihood, and positive achievements have been made. China's GDP rose by 7.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and the goal of annual growth rate of 7.5% could be achieved without a doubt. And the Chinese government introduced a series of policies and measures in accordance with the WTO rules to stabilize foreign trade growth as weak external demand persists, and foreign trade enterprises have increased efforts in adjusting structures and exploring the market, maintaining a steady growth of foreign trade. Import and export in the first 10 months reached US$ 3.2 trillion, up by 6.3% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate might be lower than expected, it is still expected to remain stable or even increased in global market share; foreign trade structure was continuously optimized, with the proportion of exports of machinery and electronic products, exports from Central and Western China and exports to emerging markets further increased. We have made efforts to improve investment environment, promoting the diversification of foreign investment utilization, and optimizing the industrial structure and regional distribution for foreign investment, and the utilized foreign investment in the first 10 months reached US$ 91.74 billion, although down by 3.5%, it has surpassed the United States to rank the first in the world in the first half of 2012;Utilized foreign investment in the service sector has achieved a positive year-on-year growth regardless of real estate factor, and utilized foreign investment in Central and Western China has maintained a relatively fast growth. We have improved policies and regulations to strengthen planning and guidance, public services and protection of rights and interests, and encouraged all enterprises to "go global", and non-financial direct investment overseas reached US$ 58.17 billion in the first 10 months, with an increase of 25.8%.

二、技术创新和贸易投资是引领世界经济走出危机的重要引擎。

II. Technological innovation, trade and investment are major engines that could take the world economy out of crisis.

世界经济复苏进程一波三折，充分说明国际金融危机的深层次影响远未消除。危机爆发之初，企业家和学者们共同认为这次危机百年一遇、非比寻常。世界经济近四年多来的曲折发展进程充分印证了这一点。从2007年的美国次贷危机，到2008年的国际金融危机，再到后来的主权债务危机，发达经济体的居民、企业和政府至今仍处于艰难的“去杠杆化”过程中，很多国家在财政紧缩和经济增长的选择中左右为难，财政政策和货币政策的运用几乎达到极限。从经济周期看，世界经济目前仍处于经济长周期的底部，很可能较长时期处于低速增长状态。要真正走出危机、步入较快增长轨道，可能还有待时日。

The recovery of world economy is full of ups and downs, which shows that the deep impact of the international financial crisis has not been removed. At the outbreak of the crisis, both entrepreneurs and scholars believe the crisis was unusual. The tortuous development process of world economy in the past four years corroborated the above opinion. From subprime mortgage crisis of the US in 2007 to the international financial crisis in 2008, and to the sovereign debt crisis, residents, enterprises and governments of the developed economies are in the tough de-leveraging process, most of which are in a dilemma between tight fiscal policy and economic growth, and have almost reached the limit of utilization of fiscal and monetary policies. In view of the economic cycle, world economy is currently at the bottom of the long-term economic cycle, and will keep the low growth for a relatively long period. It may be a long way to go before it steps out of the crisis and get on the fast growth track.

经济学理论告诉我们，经济发展需要突破技术和市场两大约束条件。科学技术的重大突破，能够提高生产效率，创造新的供给能力和社会需求，催生新一轮经济繁荣；贸易和投资的快速发展，可以充分发挥国别和地区间的比较优势，整合利用全球资源，实现规模经济，形成更加广阔的世界市场，加速经济发展步伐。进入新世纪以来，互联网技术的逐步成熟和广泛应用，再加上运输条件的改善和运输成本的下降，不仅推动了信息产业的迅速发展，带动了传统制造业发展水平的提升，而且大幅降低了国际贸易和跨国投资的成本，极大地促进了全球范围产业内的垂直分工的发展，带来了跨国投资的活跃和国际贸易的繁荣，推动了经济全球化进程。可以说，如果没有互联网技术的突破和国际贸易投资的快速发展，本世纪初世界经济的繁荣是难以实现的。

The economics theory tells us that economic development needs a breakthrough in technology and market. The great breakthrough in science and technology can increase production efficiency, create new supply capacity and social demand, and stimulate a new round of economic prosperity; the rapid development of trade and investment can give full play to the competitive advantages among different countries and regions, integrate and utilize global resources, realize economies of scale, form a broader world market and speed up economic development. Since this century, the Internet technology has been getting mature and been applied extensively, and transportation conditions has been improved and its costs decreased. It promoted the fast development of information industry, and drove the development of traditional manufacturing industry. It also significantly decreased cost of international trade and transnational investment, promoted the development of worldwide industrial vertical division of work, brought along the vitality of transnational investment and flourishing of international trade, and advanced the process of economic globalization. We can say that without breakthrough in Internet technology and the rapid development of international trade and investment, the prosperity of world economy in the beginning of this century would have been hard to be realized.

　　当前的世界经济要彻底走出危机、实现稳定复苏，依然要靠技术创新和贸易投资的带动。目前，世界各国普遍加大技术研发投入，大力培育新兴产业，新一轮技术变革和产业革命正在艰难孕育。以互联网与可再生能源相结合、制造业和服务业相融合、3D打印等技术突破传统制造流程、生产经营模式趋于分散化和个性化为主要特征的所谓“第三次工业革命”，正成为国际社会热议的话题。但技术创新需要较长孕育期，重大技术突破常常具有偶然性，科技成果最终转化为生产力仍需要一定时间。在这种形势下，世界经济要想早日走出危机，同时应该把加快推进贸易投资自由化和便利化放到更加突出的位置。遗憾的是，国际金融危机发生以来，一些国家采取了很多与自由贸易背道而驰的做法，出台了很多“奖出限入”的贸易保护措施。据世界贸易组织监测，从2008年10月到今年10月，G20成员先后出台了858项新的贸易限制措施，一些成员说一套做一套，对世界经济复苏形成巨大阻碍。我们真诚地希望，各国彻底摒弃“以邻为壑”、“独善其身”的观念和做法，坚决反对各种形式的保护主义，坚持扩大开放、携手合作，共同推动世界经济强劲、可持续、平衡发展。

Currently, the world economy’s completely stepping out of crisis and realizing stability and recovery still needs the driving of technological innovation and trade and investment. At present, all countries have been expanding investment in technological R&D, and vigorously fostering emerging industries. A new round of technological reform and industrial revolution is toughly bred. The so-called “third industrial revolutionary” is becoming the hot topic of the international community, which is featured by the combination of the Internet and renewable energy, integration of manufacturing and service sector, technologies such as 3D printing which break traditional manufacturing process, and decentralized and individualized production and operation modes. However, technological innovation needs a long incubation period: major technological breakthrough is usually a chance occurrence, and it also needs a period for scientific and technological achievements to finally transfer into production capacity. Against this background, if world economy expects to shake off the crisis, it should pay more attention to trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Regretfully, since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, some countries have adopted conducts in opposition of free trade, and promulgated many trade protectionist measures of “encouraging export and limiting import”. According to the monitoring of the WTO, since October of 2008 to this October, G20 members have put out 858 new trade restriction measures. Some members can not do as what they have said, and have made huge obstacles to the recovery of world economy. We sincerely hope that all countries can abandon the idea and conduct of “benefiting oneself at the expense of neighbors” and “being concerned only for oneself”, firmly oppose all kinds of protectionism, and insist on expanding openness and joining efforts, so as to promote the strong, sustainable and balanced development of world economy.