澳大利亚副总理韦恩·斯旺在中国世纪中的澳大利亚会议上的讲话（中英对照）

Asia-Ready People, Asia-Ready Policies<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

为亚洲做好准备的人民，为亚洲做好准备的政策

Speech by the Hon Wayne Swan MP, Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer of Australia to the “Australia in the China Century Conference”

——澳大利亚副总理兼国库部部长韦恩•斯旺在中国世纪中的澳大利亚会议上的讲话

14 September 2012

2012年9月14日

Can I start by thanking you, Paul for that introduction, thanking you all here for that warm welcome, and especially acknowledging The Australian and The Wall Street Journal for putting this event together.  The rise of China, and especially the stupendous growth in its middle class, sits alongside the Global Financial Crisis as one of the two defining economic events of our lifetimes.  Both are transforming the world.  Indeed, China’s return to pre-eminence in the global economy is the most momentous development since the industrial revolution re-shaped the Western world over 200 years ago.  So what China’s rise means for our place in the global superstructure is certainly a big enough topic to warrant this high-quality gathering today.  I’m thankful for the opportunity to offer some thoughts and then to discuss them with my distinguished colleagues on this panel.  I know that by this stage you don’t want me to go over too much of the same ground or recite the same stats.  Instead, I want to offer the personal perspective of an Australian Treasurer whose seven trips to China mean I’ve probably visited there more times than all my predecessors since federation combined.  That’s not a perfect statistic, but it does illustrate the shifting focus of Treasurers since the second world war, from markets in London, New York and Tokyo towards Shanghai and Hong Kong today.

首先我要感谢PAUL所做的介绍，并对所有来宾对我的热烈欢迎表示感谢，尤其要对澳大利亚人报和华尔街日表示感谢，感谢他们举办这样一个活动。中国的崛起，尤其是中国中产阶级的惊人增长，与全球金融危机并列成为我们此生两大决定性经济事件。这两大事件正在改变着我们的世界。的确，中国回归全球经济的主导地位是自200年前工业革命重塑西方世界以来最重大的发展。因此，中国的崛起对我们在全球上层建筑中定位的意义绝对是今天这个如此高规格的聚会中值得讨论的重要话题。我非常感谢有机会在此与大家分享我的一些想法并与小组中各位尊敬的同仁随后进行探讨。我知道，到了这个阶段，各位已不希望再听我赘述太多同样的理由或是背颂同样的统计数据。我今天只希望与大家分享一些我作为澳大利亚国库部长的个人见解。我已访问过中国七次，可能比自联邦成立以来我所有的前任访问中国的次数加起来还要多。这并不是一个完美的统计数据，但是反应了二战以来澳大利亚历任国库部长重心的变化——从曾经的伦敦，纽约、东京到如今的上海和香港。

The way I see it there’s no more important job for a modern Australian Treasurer than to work out how to capitalise on Asian growth to lift the living standards of more Australians.  And so I really want to focus my remarks on why this particular moment in time is so important to our thinking on China.  Then I want to give a bit of a sense of where the Asian Century White Paper is heading.  And then I’ll go on to make a few arguments about the relative contributions the public and private sectors can make to maximising the opportunities afforded by China’s rise.

在我看来，对一个现代澳大利亚国库部长来说，没有什么比发掘如何利用亚洲的发展来提高更多澳大利亚人民生活水平更重要的工作了。因此，我非常希望把我今天讲话的重点放在为什么这个特别的阶段在我们对于中国的思考中如此重要。然后，我想给大家介绍一下“亚洲世纪的白皮书”的一些情况。我还将就在最大限度利用中国崛起提供给我们的机会方面，公有和私有部门能够做的相关贡献做一些探讨。

My first point is that 2012 could be the most important year for China and the Sino-Australian economic relationship since 1972.  Of course, this is partly because of the wholesale changes at the very top of the Chinese leadership, a fascinating process that Richard McGregor has described in his book.  There’s no point me adding to the speculation about what the upcoming Communist Party Congress will deliver, though from an Australian point of view, we do take confidence from the fact that we have built strong relationships with China’s current and future leaders.  For example, I’ve personally spent a great deal of time with Vice Premier Li Keqiang, meeting numerous times since my earliest days as Treasurer in 2008, both here and in China.   Just as I’ve sat with their senior colleagues at G20 meetings, with their finance ministers and the People’s Bank governor, chairmen of the NDRC, and at meetings on the edges of leader’s summits.  So, as China’s new leaders take their places by year’s end, we already have a good relationship with them, and a firm foundation for strengthening that relationship further.  But the year 2012 carries great significance for our bilateral economic relationship beyond the Chinese leadership transition.  This year really needs to mark a turning point in how we see our economy and its interactions with China’s.  The way I see it, this is the year where Australians are beginning to understand that the easy yards have already been made. 

我要说的第一点就是：2012年对1972年以来的中国和中澳经济关系都可能是最为重要的一年。当然，部分原因是由于中国最高领导层中发生的大量变化，正如理查德•麦克格雷格在他的书中所描述的那样，这是一个颇具吸引力的过程。我没有必要对即将到来的中国共产党全国代表大会的种种推测再做任何添加了。从澳大利亚的角度看，我们与中国当前和未来领导人建立起的强劲关系让我们感到自信。比如，我自己与李克强副总理相处了很长时间。2008年，我还处于就任国库部长的早期，从那时起我在澳大利亚和中国曾多次与他会面。正如我在20国集团会议中曾多次与中国高级领导人会晤；也曾与中国财政部长和人民银行行长和国家发改委主任会面；我还在领导人峰会的间隙与中国领导会晤等。所以，当今年年底前中国新的领导人就任时，我们已经与他们建立了良好的关系，并打下了进一步加强这种关系的坚实基础。除了中国领导层的过渡，2012年在我们的双边经济关系中还肩负着重要作用。这一年中需要形成一个如何看待我们的经济及其与中国经济相互影响的转折点。在我看来，这是一个澳大利亚人开始明白挣钱容易的日子已经过去了的一年。

Gone are the days when a passive Australia could hang its shingle out, then sit back and watch the easy money roll in from China.  Gone are the days when our economic relationship with China could be viewed through the prism of rapidly rising coal and iron ore prices.  Because it now seems likely that 2011 marked the peak of Australia’s commodity price boom – as the Budget forecast.  This commodity price boom ran for nearly a decade, with the profound intervention of the GFC along the way.  Now, I don’t say all this because of the recent commentary about commodity prices or more moderate growth out of China. Some of this commentary is overstated.  

那些把手一伸，坐等钞票从中国滚滚而来的日子一去不复返了。以依靠迅速增长的煤和铁矿石的价格而实现的经济增长来评判两国经济关系的日子也已远去。现在看来，2011年似乎达到了澳大利亚商品价格激增的顶点---正如我们的预算所预期的那样。这种商品价格的激增已持续了将近10年，同时伴随着全球金融危机产生的深刻影响。我现在说这些不是因为最近关于商品价格或是中国增长放缓而产生的种种评论。一些关于这方面的评论被夸大了。

I say this because demand from China was never going to sustain rapidly rising commodity prices forever, or supply an ever-lasting source of income growth.  But while this transition will be difficult for some, we also need to understand that the resources boom will endure well beyond the boom in prices alone.  The resources boom is better understood as a series of booms.  First in prices.  Then investment, and then in export volumes.  And while prices have surpassed their peak, we do expect them to remain at a high level over the medium term, notwithstanding some cyclical volatility.  It’s because of this that we have an unprecedented investment boom underway in our economy.  Many of these projects are locked in and built on investment horizons that span several decades.  So not only does the investment phase still have some way to run, but we are also beginning to see its lasting benefits – greater economic capacity that will continue to boost our export volumes in coming years.  This is often misunderstood because of a tendency to ignore the nuances and push the commentary into black and white absolutes.

我之所以这样说，是因为来自中国的需求不能永远支撑快速上涨的商品价格，或是永远成为收入增长的来源。这种变化会给一些人带来困难，但我们同时应该明白，虽然价格增长会有停滞，但对资源需求的热潮会持续长久。资源热潮能够带来一系列的增长。首先是价格，其次是投资，然后是出口额。虽然价格的顶峰已经过去，但我们期待价格能够在中期继续高位运行，尽管这期间会经历一些周期性波动。正因为如此，我们的经济中会有一个前所未有的投资热潮。许多项目已经确定，而且投资周期有着几十年的跨越。因此，不光是投资还会继续运行，我们还开始看到了其中持续的益处---在未来若干年中继续使出口增加的更强的经济能力。这经常不为人们所理解的原因在于人们往往忽视细微差别从而将舆论推向绝对。

But as we move beyond the first phase of the resources boom, I am confident that we can collectively develop a better understanding of our strengths and of the opportunities ahead of us.  Because as Asia’s middle class swells in size, we will see an evolution of opportunities – as this middle class demands more of our food, our services and our skill sets.   And because we begin the Asian century with tremendous advantages, we are in a prime position to capture these possibilities.  We have an open, flexible and resilient economy – one of the strongest in the world – built on hard work and a series of good decisions and tough reforms.  We have a highly skilled, creative and multicultural population, world-class institutions, and a high level of productivity.   And we are no longer encumbered by geography.   For the first time in our history, geography is an advantage – and no longer described as a ‘tyranny’.  Just think: in the last half-century, the share of global output within 10,000km of Australia has more than doubled – from around15 per cent to around one third.  And by 2025, this share should surge further, with one half of global output expected to be within 10,000km of our shores.  So we’re in the right place at the right time, but the benefits will no longer just fall in our lap. We’ve got to sprint to keep up with such rapid change.  We’ve got to diversify – so that we’re doing as well in services and tourism and other exports as we have traditionally done in resources.  And we’ve got to cooperate – so that we all pull in the same direction and coordinate our efforts.

虽然我们已经走过了资源热潮的第一阶段，但是我相信我们一定可以一起更好地发现我们的强势所在以及摆在我们面前的机会。因为随着亚洲中产阶级在规模上的膨胀，我们会看到机会的逐渐显现——这些中产阶级更多需要我们的食品，我们的服务和我们的技术。由于我们在开启亚洲世纪时具备这些巨大的优势，因此我们在获得机会时处于优越的地位。我们拥有一个开放、灵活而富有弹性的经济——是世界上最强劲的经济之一，是一个建立在勤奋工作，一系列正确的决策和坚定的改革基础之上的经济。我们拥有技术精湛，勇于创新和多元文化的人口；世界一流的机构和高水平的生产力。我们不再受到地理位置的阻碍。地理位置首次在我们的历史中成为了优势，而不再被描述为“距离的暴政”。想想看：在过去50年中，距离澳大利亚一万公里内地区的产量在全球产量中占据的份额实现了翻倍——从15%上升到大约三分之一。到2025年，这一份额还会进一步增长，全球产量的一半都将从距离澳大利亚海岸线一万公里的范围内产生。所以，我们在恰当的时间身处恰当的位置，只是不能再坐等好处的降临。我们要以冲刺的速度跟上如此迅速的变化。我们必须要多样化——所以我们在服务业和旅游业以及其他行业的出口中正像我们在传统的资源领域中做得一样好。我们需要合作——以便我们能够朝着同一个方向前进并在这一过程中协同努力。

That’s precisely why the Asian Century White Paper, which we plan to release shortly, will be so valuable as a planning and policy tool.  I want to give you a sense of where it’s headed.  The White Paper will lay down a roadmap for Australia to become a more dynamic, resilient and prosperous nation, fully connected with the region and open to the world.  It will cast a long-term vision for our country, and will outline a set of ambitious national objectives for Australia to achieve by 2025.  Not for the next 12 months but for the next 12 years.  These objectives will help focus government, business and the broader community on the major tasks ahead if we are to truly prosper in the Asian Century. It will set our sights far and wide.  In doing this, the White Paper will identify key pathways that our nation should take if we want to achieve these objectives, both to unlock the opportunities and manage possible challenges as they emerge.  Some of these pathways can be taken immediately, and some will already be underway, but for the most part they are pathways that we will need to travel over many years.  After all, we’re talking about a century-long transition in our region – it is far bigger than one Budget or one business strategy alone.  It is far greater than one Government – it is a journey over generations.  The White Paper will canvass the key policy directions that will allow Australia to successfully navigate our way through this century. This will involve honing our resilience and lifting our productivity at home through five key policy pillars –education and skills, innovation, infrastructure, tax reform and regulatory reform.  It will mean finding new ways to operate and connect with growing Asian markets, and to contribute to a more secure and sustainable region.   And it will require Australians to forge deeper and broader relationships with our neighbours at all levels – not only through economic and political links, but through social and cultural links as well.    All of this will require leadership, collaboration, foresight and policy innovation as the century unfolds.

这正是为什么《亚洲世纪的白皮书》作为一个规划和政策工具对我们如此重要的原因。我们打算不久之后就发布这个白皮书。我想给大家大致讲一讲这本书的内容。白皮书会为澳大利亚如何成为一个更有活力、更加灵活和繁荣、与本地区紧密联系并且对世界开放的国家制定一个路线图。白皮书会为我们的国家设定一个长期规划，并制定澳大利亚到2025年以前需要实现的一系列雄心勃勃的国家目标。白皮书针对的不是未来12个月，而是未来12年。如果我们真想在亚洲世纪获得繁荣，这些目标将有助于政府、商界和更为广泛的社区关注这些主要任务。白皮书让我们将目光放的更宽更远。它会为我们的国家确立实现这些目标的重要途径，在锁定机会的同时应对可能出现的挑战。这些途径有些可以立刻采纳，有些将被采纳，但大多数都是我们需要在多年里一直采纳的途径。毕竟我们现在谈论的是本地区长达一个世纪的转型——它远远大于一个预算或是一个商业战略所能包涵的；也远非一届政府期内即可经历完成的——这是一个跨越几代人的旅程。白皮书将探究能使澳大利亚在本世纪中成功前进的关键的政策方向。其中涉及通过包括教育和技能、创新、基础设施、税收改革和监管改革在内的五大政策支柱锻炼我们的应变能力和提升国内生产力。这意味着寻求运作以及与不断增长的亚洲市场联系的新途径，以及为更加安全和具有可持续性的地区作出贡献的新方法。这要求澳大利亚人民与我们的邻居们在各个层面开拓更深入更广泛的关系——不仅是通过经济和政治上的联系，还有社会和文化上的联系。随着时间的推进，所有这一切都需要领导力、合作、远见以及政策上的创新。