段洁龙总领事在澳大利亚会计师公会的演讲（中英对照）

段洁龙总领事在澳大利亚会计师公会的演讲<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Speech by H.E Consul General Duan Jielong at Financial Institutions Discussion Group, CPA Australia

2012年7月4日

July 4 2012

各位嘉宾，女士们、先生们，

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and gentlemen,

　　首先，非常感谢澳大利亚会计师公会的盛情邀请。贵公会是澳大利亚乃至全球会计行业的领军者。多年来，大家为推动中澳友好交流特别是经贸领域的合作做出了积极贡献，我对此表示衷心的敬意与感谢。最近一段时间，遇到不少澳大利亚朋友询问中国经济的发展趋势，澳洲的主流媒体也关注中国经济是否会硬着陆。我不是经济领域的专家，今天只是介绍一些情况，以便各位对中国当前的经济形势作出自己的分析和判断。

First of all, I would to pass my thanks to CPA Australia for inviting me. CPA Australia is a leading association in the accounting business of Australia and even throughout the world. For many years, you have done a lot to promote the friendly exchanges between China and Australia and especially the cooperation in business, for which I would like to express my heartfelt respect and thanks. Recently I have been asked quite often by local friends about the trend of Chinese economy, and I also understand there is also tremendous local media focus on whether there will be a hard landing. I am not an expert in economy. What I can do today is to share with you some updated information about Chinese economy, so that you may draw your own analysis and conclusion on the economic situation of China.

　　相信大家都注意到了，今年一季度中国GDP同比增长8.1%，4、5月份增速继续回落。一些人士忧虑中国经济将硬着陆，对澳大利亚的经济带来不良影响。如何看待中国经济的情况，我想先介绍一些中国政府在引导经济发展的宏观层面上的政策方向，让各位先有一个总体概念，即中国人是怎么思考中国经济的现状及未来如何发展的。

I believe everyone has already noticed that China’s GDP grew by 8.1% in the first quarter of this year, and the growth rate continued to fall in April and May. Some people are worrying that China might have a hard landing which will negatively impact on Australian economy. So how do we look at China’s economy? Please let me start with the Chinese Government’s policy direction in guiding the macro-economy, so that we can firstly form a conception of the whole picture of how do Chinese think of the current status and future of their economy.

　　2011年，是中国“十二五”规划的开局之年，经济运行情况总体良好。据统计，中国去年全年GDP增长9.2%，经济总量达到约7.3万亿美元，略少于美国去年GDP总量的二分之一，是世界第二大经济规模。但是，我们的人均GDP只有5400美元，是美国人均GDP的九分之一，是澳大利亚的约十二分之一。同时，中国的经济运行中也存在不少问题，特别是经济发展中的不平衡、不全面、不可持续的问题比较突出。所以，我们常说，中国是发展中国家，而且将长期属于发展中国家，这是中国给自己的国际定位，也是改进中国经济发展模式的着力点。

In the year 2011, when China started its Twelfth Five Year Plan, Chinese economy was generally in good shape. According to statistics, China’s GDP grew by 9.2% last year and climbed to 7.3 trillion US dollars, slightly less than a half of the US GDP last year, which still made China the second largest economy of the world. However, our per capita GDP was only 5,400 US dollars, which was only one ninth of that of United States and one twelfth of that of Australia. At the same time, there were also problems in China’s economic growth. Especially the imbalances in regional and sectoral development as well as the insufficient sustainability of the current growth pattern were among the most pressing ones. Therefore, we often say that China is a developing country and will remain so for a long time. This is how China defines itself in the world and where China will improve on its development mode.

　　2012年中国政府在年初对国内经济发展提出了“稳中求进”的总体方针，其核心就是要下大气力进一步转变我们的经济增长方式，调整产业结构，确保经济发展更有效益、更有质量。为此，中国政府主动把今年GDP预期增长速度从去年的9.2%调降为7.5%，坚决扭转以往侧重追求GDP数字的经济增长模式。今年一季度，在国际经济形势面临种种困难的情况下，中国经济增长仍然达到了８.１%，同时城乡居民的人均收入也高于GDP的增长，产业结构的调整也在有序推进。尽管中国经济的发展速度略有减缓，但我们对中国经济的平稳、有序增长还是充满信心的。

In 2012, the Chinese Government set “to make progress while ensuring stability” as the guiding principle in domestic economic development. The essence is to make greater efforts to transform the growth pattern and adjust industrial structure, so as to ensure better efficiency and quality of the economic growth. To this end, the Chinese government has voluntarily lowered the annual growth rate expectation from 9.2% to 7.5% as a resolution to change the old growth pattern that simply focused on GDP figures. In the first quarter of this year, despite the harsh circumstances in international economy, China’s economy still grew by 8.1%. The growth rates of the rural and urban household incomes were also higher than that of GDP. The industrial structure adjustment was also gradually progressing. Although the growth rate slowed down a little bit, we are still confident about the smooth and orderly growth of China’s economy.

　　讲到对中国经济的信心，我也愿提到这方面一些特别有意义的数字。前面提到中国是一个发展中国家，其中的一个重要标志就中国目前仍处在一个城镇化较快发展的进程之中。今年三月，在中国上海举办的“2012中国城镇化高层国际论坛”上，联合国开发计划署驻华代表处主任Christophe Bahuet先生说到，中国的城市化发展进程很迅速，而且发展态势也很特别。在1982年的时候，中国只有20%的城市人口，到了2000年大概也只有1/3，但现在已超过50%。在中国，我们看到了非常强大的人口流动，这在其他国家是从来没有见过的。对于他所说的这番说，我没有不同意见，只想补充的是，中国目前仍有6亿多农村人口，政府经济部门预测中国的城镇化在今后30年内将会达到70－75%，也就是说还有20－25%的增长空间。而在中国“十二五”、“十三五”发展规划的十年里，更是城镇化较快发展的一个重要阶段。因此，中国经济发展的动力必然是强劲的。

Speaking of confidence in China’s economy, I am also happy to share some meaningful statistics. As I said a few minutes ago, China is still a developing country. One of the important marks is the fact that China is still undergoing a rapid urbanization process. In the “China International Urbanization Forum 2012” that was held in Shanghai this March, UNDP China Country Director Mr. Christophe Bahuet said in his address that, “China’s urbanisation process is of particular importance… for its speed and …its scale….China’s urban population was only of about 20 percent in 1982. In 2000, one third of the population lived in cities, compared to 50 percent today. Internal migration is happening on a massive scale… that is unprecedented in human history.” I do not have any disagreement with what he said. But I just want to add that there are still over 600 million people living in rural area of China. According to the prediction of the Chinese government, China’s urbanization rate will be over 70-75% in the coming three decades, that is to say, there are still 20-25% room for further growth. China’s urbanization process will be particular fast during the ten years of the Twelfth and the Thirteenth Five Year Plans. Therefore, there is undoubtedly strong internal impetus for economic growth in China.

　　除上述外，我还想介绍一下中国经济发展中的产业结构调整问题。各位也许知道，中国经济在过去30多年里快速发展，主要依靠庞大的资源、能源支撑。我们从改革开放初期的自给自足经济模式起步，到如今对国际市场的高度依赖，一方面给国际经济经济贸易注入动力，但另一方面也形成一定压力。目前，中国的石油、天然气、铁矿石严重依靠进口。根据BP公司去年的统计，在全球石油进口明显下降的情况下，中国的进口仍然增长了13%。另外，中国现在仍然是以依靠煤为主要能源的国家，我们的GDP总量不足美国的一半，但能源消耗总量却大约与美国相当。在这种情况下，中国经济要保持可持续增长，实现产业转型、调整产业结构、通过提高科学技术等多项措施提高生产力、降低单位GDP的能源、资源消耗等，是一条必由之路，别无其他选择。在这方面，中国与澳大利亚的合作有非常广阔的空间。而且，澳大利亚也已经做出了积极贡献。比如，中国现在正大力开发太阳能、风能等清洁能源。中国现在最大的光伏生产企业－尚德公司的CEO施正荣先生就是在澳洲完成其高等教育和科学研究后，成就了其在中国的事业。

Apart from what I mentioned above, I would also like to say something about the structural adjustment in China’s economy. As you may know, China’s economic growth in the past three decades was achieved with massive resources and energy consumption. We started from a self-dependent economy at the beginning of reform and opening-up, and grew into an economy that is highly dependent on international market today. It stimulated the international economy and trade on one hand, but also created certain pressure. Currently, China’s oil, natural gas and iron ore highly relies on import. According to BP statistics, China’s oil import grew by 13% despite apparent decrease in oil import in international market. Besides, coal is still the most consumed energy resource in China. Our GDP is less than half of that of US, but our energy consumption roughly equals to theirs. Under such circumstances, if China wants to maintain sustainable growth, we must realize industrial upgrade and structural adjustment, and use advanced technologies to improve productivity and lower per unit GDP energy and resource consumption. It is the only choice for us. In this regards, there are great cooperation potential between China and Australia. Actually, Australia has already made positive contribution to that. For example, China is greatly promoting the development of solar and wind energy. Dr. Shi Zhengrong, the Chairman of Suntech, which is the largest photovoltaic company in China, finished his higher education and scientific research in Australia and then returned to China to established his enterprise.

　　综上，今年中国经济增长减速首先是中国政府主动调控的结果。这种适度调低GDP增速,并非经济发展动力不足所致。中国政府在综合考虑国际国内因素基础上, 按照“十二五”规划有目的地通过适当放缓增速, 更好地调整产业结构，提高经济的中长期发展质量和效益，总体上符合预期。

To summarize, this year’s slowdown in China’s economy is the result of voluntary macro-management of the Chinese government. Such moderate slowdown in the growth rate is not caused by lack of impetus. The Chinese government took the overall international and domestic factors into full consideration, and deliberately slowed down the growth in accordance with the Twelfth Five Year Plan, in a bid to better adjust the industrial structure and raise the quality and efficiency of the mid-and-long-term development. So far the developments fell well into our expectation.