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在改革开放进程中深入实施扩大内需战略<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Thoroughly Applying the Strategy of Boosting Domestic Demand 在不久前召开的中央经济工作会议上,胡锦涛同志、温家宝同志作了重要讲话,科学分析了当前国际国内经济形势,系统总结了2011年经济工作,全面部署了2012年经济工作,提出了总体要求、大政方针和主要任务。在此,我就贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神、在改革开放进程中深入实施扩大内需战略这一问题,谈些认识。 At the Central Economic Work Conference that was held recently, General Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao both delivered important speeches. In addition to analyzing the current international and domestic economic situations and giving a summary of our economic work in 2011, their speeches also outlined the overall arrangements for our economic work in 2012, setting forth general requirements, guiding policies, and major tasks. Here, I would like to talk about some views in regard to implementing the guiding principle of the Central Economic Work Conference and thoroughly applying the strategy of boosting domestic demand during the process of reform and opening up. 一、在新的形势下继续处理好速度、结构、物价三者关系,为在改革开放进程中深入实施扩大内需战略创造良好环境 I. Continuing to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices under new circumstances to create favorable conditions for the thorough application of the strategy of boosting domestic demand during the process of reform and opening up 中央经济工作会议指出,推动2012年经济社会发展,必须突出把握好稳中求进的工作总基调。要全面贯彻党的十七大和十七届三中、四中、五中、六中全会精神,以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,保持宏观经济政策的连续性和稳定性,增强调控的针对性、灵活性、前瞻性,继续处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系,加快推进经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整,着力扩大国内需求,着力加强自主创新和节能减排,着力深化改革开放,着力保障和改善民生,保持经济平稳较快发展和物价总水平基本稳定,保持社会和谐稳定。在新形势下,统筹处理好速度、结构、物价三者关系,事关经济社会发展全局,事关当前和长远发展,对于做好2012年经济工作具有重大意义。 The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that the key theme of economic and social development in 2012 must be to make progress while maintaining stability. We need to comprehensively apply the guidelines set forth at the Seventeenth National Party Congress and the Third, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Plenary Sessions of the Seventeenth CPC Central Committee, take Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents as our guide, and thoroughly implement the Scientific Outlook on Development. We need to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and make our macro-control more targeted, flexible and forward-looking. We need to keep a sound balance between maintaining steady and rapid economic growth, adjusting the economic structure, and regulating inflation expectations, so as to accelerate the transformation of the pattern of economic development and the adjustment of the economic structure. We need to focus our efforts on boosting domestic demand, strengthening our capacity for independent innovation, enhancing energy conservation and emissions reduction, deepening reform and opening up, and ensuring and improving the public well-being. By doing so, we will be able to sustain steady and rapid economic growth, keep the overall level of prices steady, and maintain social harmony and stability. Under new circumstances, our efforts to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices will have a major bearing on the overall situation of economic and social development. They will also have a bearing on China’s development both now and in the future, and are essential to the success of our economic initiatives in 2012. 过去一年,面对复杂严峻的国内外经济形势,党中央、国务院审时度势、科学决策,把控制物价总水平过快上涨作为宏观调控的首要任务,正确处理保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系,采取一系列有效措施,使国民经济继续朝着宏观调控的预期方向发展,呈现增长较快、价格趋稳、效益较好、民生改善的良好势头。全年经济增长率9.2%,居民消费价格涨幅5.4%。同时,经济结构调整取得积极进展。实现了“十二五”时期的良好开局。 During the year 2011, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council formulated rational policy decisions by taking stock of the complex and serious economic situations faced both domestically and internationally. Having identified efforts to curb the excessively rapid increase of prices as the primary task of our macro-control policies, we strived to ensure a balance between maintaining steady and rapid economic growth, adjusting the economic structure, and regulating inflation expectations. We adopted a series of effective measures to guide the national economy towards the expectations of our macro-control policies, thereby creating a favorable situation in which the economy grew at a relatively rapid speed, prices became stable, economic efficiency was increased, and public well-being was improved. Our economy grew by 9.2% in the year 2011, while consumer prices grew by 5.4%. At the same time, positive progress was also made in the restructuring of the economy, marking a favorable start to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. 新的一年,国内外经济形势更为复杂严峻,处理好速度、结构、物价的关系,面临不少困难和挑战。从国际看,国际金融危机远未结束,一方面,欧洲主权债务危机持续发酵,西方主要经济体失业率居高不下,世界经济增长动力明显减弱,风险因素增多,经济低迷可能是一个长期趋势。在这样的背景下,主要国际组织都调低了对2012年世界经济增长率的预测。当然,美国等国也出现了一些复苏回暖的迹象,对此我们也要高度关注。另一方面,一些发展中国家和新兴经济体物价上涨较快,一些发达国家通胀率也处于较高水平,宏观决策面临两难选择。目前,国内市场与国际市场已互联互接,世界经济增长下滑、通胀水平抬升和发达国家复杂多变的经济形势,会通过多种渠道对我国发展产生影响。 In the year 2012, domestic and international economic situations will be even more complex and severe. We will be confronted with numerous difficulties and challenges as we strive to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices. From an international perspective, the international financial crisis is far from over. On the one hand, the likelihood is that the economic slump will continue for a long period of time, considering that the European sovereign debt crisis is continuing to simmer, rates of unemployment remain high in major Western economies, the momentum of world economic growth is obviously diminishing, and risk factors are increasing in number. Against this backdrop, major international organizations have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2012. Of course, there have been signs of economic recovery in some countries, such as the US, which require our close attention. On the other hand, the soaring prices in some developing countries and emerging economies, coupled with relatively high rates of inflation in some developed countries have presented them with a dilemma in macroeconomic policy-making. Since our domestic market is now closely linked to the international market, China’s development will be affected by the global economic slump, high inflation rates, and the complex and volatile economic situations in developed countries through different channels. 从国内看,经济增速缓慢回落与物价涨幅仍处高位的问题相互交织,经济结构性矛盾突出。一是经济增长存在放缓压力。在外需下降的同时,制约内需增长的因素也在增加,居民收入保持较快增长的难度加大,企业投资能力和意愿下降,扩大民间投资还存在不少障碍。二是推动物价上涨的影响因素仍然较多。既有劳动力、土地、能源资源等要素价格上涨造成的生产成本上升的压力,也有国际市场部分大宗商品价格高位震荡形成的输入性通胀的影响,还有深化资源性产品价格改革、疏导突出价格矛盾的影响。三是发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题依然突出。内外需结构仍不合理,一二三产业不协调,城乡和地区发展不平衡,能源资源消耗多,环境污染重,经济增长方式仍然粗放,这些都成为制约我国发展的重要因素。 From a domestic perspective, we are facing a slowdown in economic growth that is intertwined with soaring prices as well as prominent structural imbalances in the economy. First, there is the pressure for a slowdown in economic growth. Alongside decreasing external demand, there is an increasing number of factors constraining the increase of domestic demand, which include the increasing difficulty of maintaining rapid growth in personal income levels, the decreasing capacity and willingness of enterprises to invest, and the large number of obstacles hindering the expansion of private investment. Second, there are still many factors contributing to the rise in goods prices. These include production cost increases resulting from price increases in factors of production such as labor, land, energy and resources, imported inflation caused by the high-level price fluctuations of some bulk commodities in the international market, and also the effects of our efforts to deepen the reform of pricing systems for resource products and regulate prominent imbalances in their prices. Third, the problem of imbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development is still serious. Domestic and external demand is irrationally structured; primary, secondary and tertiary industries are imbalanced; and the development between urban and rural areas and between different regions is uneven. At the same time, our economy is still characterized by an extensive growth mode, with high consumption of energy resources and serious environmental pollution. These are all important factors that are restricting China’s development. 2012年,处理好速度、结构、物价的关系,关键在于保持经济平稳较快发展和物价总水平基本稳定。我们要保持的经济增长,是物价总水平基本稳定条件下的增长,是总量平衡、结构优化的增长;同时,我们要保持的物价稳定,是经济平稳较快增长下的稳定,是发展中的稳定。但经济增长和物价稳定总体上往往是一对矛盾。只要增长速度、不顾物价稳定,或只要物价稳定、不顾增长速度都相对容易,难的是二者兼顾。当前,国际上流动性过剩和市场预期低迷并存,国内货币存量也较大,给“两个保持”带来很大压力。 In 2012, our efforts to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices should be focused on sustaining steady and rapid economic growth and maintaining the overall stability of prices. We want economic growth to take place whilst the overall level of prices remains stable and in a way conducive to the optimization of the economic structure whilst overall supply and demand remain balanced. At the same time, we want price levels to remain stable whilst the economy continues to grow rapidly and steadily. However, economic growth and price stability often contradict each other. It is relatively easy to achieve rapid economic growth without price stability, or price stability without rapid economic growth, but difficult to achieve both. It is even more difficult at present due to the high domestic monetary stock combined with excess global liquidity and low market expectations. 处理好速度、结构、物价三者关系,必须加快调整经济结构。推进结构调整,有利于增强发展的可持续性,促进经济增长由政策刺激向自主增长转变,防止经济出现大的波动;有利于增加市场有效供给,抑制高耗能、高排放等不合理需求,消除总供给与总需求平衡的制约因素;有利于推动经济转型和模式创新,提高发展质量和效益,形成经济增长由内外需、三次产业协调拉动和科技教育管理支撑的新格局。发达国家在经济科技上长期占优势的压力,其他新兴经济体要素潜力正在发挥的现实,国际金融危机以来各国抢占未来发展制高点的竞争,都要求我国加快结构调整步伐。当前国内外经济环境的变化,对结构调整也形成一种“倒逼机制”。总之,发展必须转型,转型也是发展,是内生增长、创新驱动和结构优化的发展。我们必须顺势而为,乘势而上,变被动为主动,下大力气推进发展方式转变,推动经济结构调整向纵深发展。 We must accelerate our efforts to adjust the economic structure in order to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices. Structural adjustment is conducive to enhancing the sustainability of development, promoting the transition from policy-stimulated growth to self-propelled growth, thus avoiding major fluctuations in the economy. It is conducive to increasing effective market supply, restricting irrational demands involving high energy consumption and high emissions, and eliminating the constraints on the balance between overall supply and overall demand. And it is also conducive to promoting the transformation of the economic pattern and innovation in the economic model, improving the quality and efficiency of development, and creating a new situation in which economic growth is stimulated in a balanced manner by domestic demand, international demand, and primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and supported by scientific, technological and educational management. The need for China to accelerate the pace of its structural adjustment has been spelt out by the pressure we have come under owing to the long-standing economic, scientific, and technological superiority of developed countries, the reality that other emerging economies are tapping into their potential factors of production, and the scramble for the future high ground in development that has been taking place between countries since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. The current changes in the domestic and international economic situations are compelling us to make structural adjustment. In summary, transformation is a necessity for development, and a form of development in its own right: a self-sustaining, innovation-driven, and structurally-optimal form of development. Acting in accordance with the situation, we must seize the initiative to push forward the transformation of the pattern of development and promote the in-depth restructuring of the economy. 中央经济工作会议提出了2012年经济发展的主要预期目标,对转变经济发展方式、调整经济结构和推进改革开放提出了明确要求。要按照中央决策部署,进一步加强和改善宏观调控,把握好调控的重点、力度和节奏,根据形势发展变化适时适度进行预调微调,处理好速度、结构、物价三者关系,有针对性地解决经济运行中的突出矛盾和问题,积极发挥规划、计划的导向作用,加强财政、信贷、产业等政策的协调配合,努力实现经济发展预期目标,推动经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整取得新进展,为在改革开放进程中深入实施扩大内需战略创造有利条件和良好环境。 The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the major objectives for economic development in the year 2012. It has defined specific requirements in regard to transforming the pattern of economic development, adjusting the economic structure, and promoting reform and opening up. In our further efforts to strengthen and improve macro-control in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, we must correctly determine the focus, intensity, and pace of macro-control, and conduct the necessary pre-adjustments and fine-tuning at the appropriate junctures in line with the development of the situation, in order to balance the relationship between speed, structure and prices. We need to target prominent conflicts and problems in economic operation, actively give play to the guiding role of relevant plans, and strengthen the coordination of policies pertaining to public finance, credit and industrial development. Through these efforts, we will strive to realize our targets in economic development, make new progress in the transformation of the pattern of economic development and the restructuring of the economy, and create favorable conditions for the thorough application of the strategy of boosting domestic demand during the process of reform and opening up. |
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