李从军：全球经济再平衡（中英对照）

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Rebalancing the Global Economy

李从军

Li Congjun

　　中国近几年流行一个笑话，说的是一个中国老妇和一个美国老妇在天堂里相遇了。中国老妇说：“我到临死前终于攒够钱买一套房子了。”美国老妇则说：“我临死前才终于把房子贷款还清了。”

A Joke popular in China in recent years tells of an old Chinese woman and an old American woman who meet in heaven. “Just before I died, I could finally afford to buy a house,” the Chinese lady says. The American responds, “Just before I died, I finally paid off my mortgage.”

　　这则笑话基于美国人喜欢挥霍而中国人习惯节俭的成见，也在一定程度上解释了失衡的世界经济如何失去方向。

Though premised on stereotypes of spendthrift Americans and frugal Chinese, the story helps explain how an imbalanced world economy lost its bearings.

　　这次危机在两个方面区别于过去的经济动荡，同时也解释了它持久不愈的原因。第一个是信贷悖论：它在带来活力的同时也破坏稳定。全球金融的扩张及其支配地位为更快的资本积累和物质丰富打开大门，但与此同时也播下危机的种子。在美国，宽松的货币政策和神秘的金融操纵让消费者能够轻易享受到更大的房子、更好的汽车和更长的假期，即便他们根本没有储蓄。

Two dimensions of the crisis distinguish it from past economic disruptions and explain its tenacity. The first is the paradox of credit, which is simultaneously dynamic and destabilizing. The expansion and dominance of global finance opened the gate for faster capital accumulation and material abundance, but at the same time sowed the seeds of crisis. In the United States, relaxed monetary policies and esoteric financial engineering gave consumers easy access to luxuries like bigger homes, better cars and more vacations, even if they had no savings.

　　美国等富裕国家的信用过剩导致中国和巴西等以出口为导向的新兴国家生产过剩。这种不平衡对双方都产生消极影响。在西方，几十年来，实业家们纷纷将生产转到劳动力、设备和材料都更廉价的发展中国家，他们本国的制造业不断被掏空。此外，中产阶级也萎缩了，原因是金融驱动型经济产生的收益都到了“肥猫”手里，他们操控着信贷杠杆。在新兴经济体，城市化和工业化使无数人摆脱贫困，但也给环境带来很大影响。

A credit surplus in wealthy countries resulted in a production surplus in emerging, export-oriented countries like China and Brazil. These imbalances have had negative effects for both sides. In the West, manufacturing has been hollowing out for decades as industrialists migrate to developing countries, where labor, equipment and materials are cheaper. Moreover, the middle class has shrunk, as the returns of a finance-driven economy have flowed to “fat cats” who control the levers of credit. In emerging economies, urbanization and industrialization have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty but have also exacted a heavy toll on the environment.