双语:刘鹤在达沃斯世界经济论坛2018年年会上的演讲

摘要

Full Text: Speech by H.E. Liu He at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2018

刘鹤出席达沃斯世界经济论坛2018年年会并发表演讲

推动高质量发展 共同促进全球经济繁荣稳定

Pursue High-quality Development, Work Together for Global Economic Prosperity and Stability

 

——刘鹤在达沃斯世界经济论坛2018年年会上的演讲

– Speech by H.E. Liu He at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2018

 

2018年1月24日

24 January 2018

 

尊敬的施瓦布主席,

尊敬的各位嘉宾,

女士们,先生们,朋友们:

 

Dr. Klaus Schwab,

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Dear Friends,

 

大家上午好!非常感谢施瓦布先生邀请,让我有机会参加本次达沃斯论坛。去年这个时候,习近平主席在这里发表了题为《共担时代责任 共促全球发展》的著名演讲,坚决支持和推动经济全球化进程,受到国际社会的普遍欢迎。一年来,中国积极落实习近平主席的倡议,反对各种保护主义,加强产权保护,促进公平竞争,放宽金融业市场准入,主动扩大进口,积极推进“一带一路”建设,用实际行动推动经济全球化进程。

 

Good morning! Let me begin by thanking Dr. Schwab for inviting me to the forum. President Xi Jinping came here last year and delivered a speech entitled “Jointly Shoulder Responsibility of Our Times, Promote Global Growth”, in which he expounded on China’s firm support for economic globalization. That speech was warmly received by the international community.

 

Over the past year, in line with the propositions of President Xi, China has stood firm against all forms of protectionism. We have worked to strengthen the protection of property rights and promote fair competition. Just as important, we have broadened access to our financial markets and taken the initiative to increase imports. With efforts to advance the Belt and Road Initiative, we are moving economic globalization forward with concrete actions.

 

施瓦布主席希望我借这个机会介绍中共十九大和中国未来几年的经济政策,我做一简要回应。中共十九大确立了以习近平主席为核心的新的中央领导集体,把习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想作为中国发展的行动指南,确定了到2020年全面建成小康社会和到2050年分两步走建成社会主义现代化强国的宏伟目标,明确了未来几年中国的经济政策方向。中共十九大报告是一份透明度很高的施政纲领,里面提的每件事都是向中国人民的庄严承诺,都必须要做到。而做到这些事,将为世界各国发展提供新的机遇。如果想了解中国的未来政策,我建议大家阅读一下这份报告。

 

Dr. Schwab asked me to talk about the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and China’s economic policy for the next few years. So let me make the following observations. The 19th Party Congress established China’s new central leadership with President Xi at its core, and “The Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was adopted as the guide to China’s development. It mapped out the objective to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and to turn China into a great modern socialist country in two steps by 2050.

 

It also charted the course for China’s economic policy over the next couple of years. The report of the 19th Party Congress is a highly transparent policy agenda. It lays out the promises that will be delivered to the Chinese people. The fulfillment of this agenda will also bring about new opportunities for the development of other countries in the world. I recommend this report to those of you who are keen to learn more about China’s future policies.

 

中国未来几年经济政策的顶层设计,是围绕上述目标而制定的,关键就是要实施好“一个总要求”、“一条主线”和“三大攻坚战”。

 

This top-level planning of China’s economic policy for the next few years is designed in light of the above-mentioned objectives. In a nutshell, this policy centers around a Key Necessity, a Main Task, and Three Critical Battles. Let me explain one by one.

 

“一个总要求”,就是中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。今后几年中国的宏观经济政策、结构政策、改革政策、社会政策都将围绕这个总要求展开。从高速增长向高质量发展的转变,是经济发展的内在要求,中国正处于从人均收入8000多美元向1万美元、进而向更高水平迈进的历史阶段。在这种情况下,高质量发展的主要内涵,就是从总量扩张向结构优化转变,就是从“有没有”向“好不好”转变。这是在开放状态下探索新的发展模式,将为诸多新产业的发展创造巨大的空间,比如与消费升级相关的制造业和服务业,与新型城市化相关的节能建筑、智能交通、新能源等诸多绿色低碳产业,这些不仅为中国,而且为全球企业创造着新机会。当然,实际关联的产业远远不止这些,因为这是整个经济体系现代化的过程。事实上,转变已经发生。中国经济内需稳步扩大,目前中国消费对经济增长贡献率达到58.8%,比5年前提高了近4个百分点。服务业增加值占GDP比重达到60%,比5年前提高了5个多百分点。过去5年,又有8000多万农业转移人口成为市民,常住人口城镇化率达到58.52%,比五年前提高了近6个百分点。同时,能耗强度已经下降23.9%。

 

The Key Necessity here is that China’s economy has been transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of high-quality development. It is in this context that China formulates its macroeconomic, structural, reform and social policies for the coming years. This transition is an inherent part of the course of economic development. China’s per capita income is moving up from the current level of US$8,000-plus to US$10,000 and even higher. At such a stage of development, China needs to put more emphasis on structural improvement rather than quantity expansion.

 

Our focus needs to change from “Is there enough?” to “Is it good enough?” As we open up wider to the outside world, this transition to a new model of development will create huge opportunities for many new industries. This may well include manufacturing and service industries related to higher-quality consumption, as well as energy-efficient buildings, smart transportation, new energy and many other green and low-carbon industries in new cities. It means new opportunities for businesses not just in China but across the world. And the knock-on effect on other industries will be even greater as it is about the modernization of the entire economy.

 

In fact, changes are already taking place. Our domestic demand has steadily expanded, with consumption contributing 58.8% to economic growth, nearly four percentage points higher than five years ago. The added value of the service sector takes up 60% of GDP, more than five percentage points higher than five years ago. And with more rural migrant workers settling down in cities, permanent urban residents have increased by another 80 million-plus in the past five years, accounting for 58.52% of the total population, nearly six percentage points higher than five years ago. Meanwhile, China’s energy intensity – a measure of energy consumption per unit of GDP – has fallen by 23.9%.

 

“一条主线”,就是要以推进供给侧结构性改革为主线。从中国的实际出发,经济发展的主要矛盾在于供给体系难以适应需求体系的变化,供求之间存在结构性偏差,需要及时调整。因此,通过改革提高供给体系的质量,是我们实现高质量发展的基本路径。供给侧结构性改革的阶段性重点是“三去一降一补”,就是在生产过剩的领域“去产能”,在房地产领域去掉多余的库存,降低过高的杠杆率,在全社会降低成本,在整个经济结构中补上公共服务、基础设施和制度性短板,全面提升供给体系的适应力和创新性。中国推进供给侧结构性改革,已经取得了阶段性成效。2016年以来,中国已减少钢铁产能超过1.15亿吨,取缔1.4亿吨“地条钢”产能,减少煤炭产能超过5亿吨。我们通过市场出清调整了供求关系,带动了部分领域的价格回升,全要素生产率增速在2016年出现了由降转升的拐点,这件事已经产生全球的正面外溢效应。这项工作,我们将继续坚定不移地做下去。

 

The Main Task is to advance supply-side structural reform. The principal contradiction in China’s economic development is that our supply side fails to evolve in step with the demand, resulting in a structural mismatch that urgently needs to be fixed.

 

To improve the quality of the supply side through reform is the basic pathway leading to high-quality development. The priority at the moment is to cut excess capacity where necessary, reduce inventory in the housing sector, bring down the overall leverage ratio, lower cost across the board, and strengthen the weak links in the economy ranging from public services to infrastructure and institutions.

 

With these measures, we hope to make the supply side more adaptable and more innovative. Some initial progress has been made. Since 2016, we have cut over 115 million tons of steel capacity, eliminated an additional 140 million tons of substandard steel capacity, and phased out over 500 million tons of coal capacity. We have adjusted the supply-demand relationship through market clearing, which has led to price rises in some sectors. As we can see, total factor productivity growth stopped its decline and began to increase in 2016. The positive spillover of our supply-side structural reform is being felt across the world. Indeed, this is a reform that we must continue and see through.

 

“三大攻坚战”,就是中国决定打好防范化解重大风险、精准脱贫、污染防治三大攻坚战。按照“木桶原理”,“三大攻坚战”就是补齐我们发展中的三个最突出的短板,从而确保全面建成小康社会。

 

The Three Critical Battles which China is determined to fight include: 1) preventing and resolving the major risks, 2) conducting targeted poverty reduction, and 3) controlling pollution. As we all know, if a bucket is to hold more water, its shortest plank must be made longer. Likewise, for China to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects, we must fix the shortest plank in our development through winning these battles.

 

一是继续打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战。在中国经济面临的各类风险中,金融风险尤为突出。我们将坚持稳中求进工作总基调,针对影子银行、地方政府隐性债务等突出问题,争取在未来3年左右时间,使宏观杠杆率得到有效控制,金融结构适应性提高,金融服务实体经济能力增强,系统性风险得到有效防范,经济体系良性循环水平上升。我们对打赢这场战役充满信心,思路也非常明确。从战略上看,我们要坚持在改革和发展中解决前进中的问题。从战术上看,我们要抓住突出矛盾,解决重点问题。我们有诸多有利条件:中国经济出现企稳向好态势,基本面长期向好的趋势没有改变;中国未来发展有巨大的潜能,既包括城市化的潜能,也包括改造传统产业和创新发展的潜能等;中国金融体系总体健全,储蓄率较高。我们已经开始妥善处置一系列风险因素,从去年四季度开始,中国的宏观杠杆率增速已经有所下降,这是个好迹象。另外,各方面的风险防范意识正在强化,“刚性兑付”和“隐性担保”的市场预期正在改变,这对我们防控金融风险创造了重要的心理条件。需要指出的是,中国金融风险的形成有特定的国际背景,其应对也与外部市场变化密切相关,化解金融风险是稳定全球经济的重要组成部分,我们欢迎国际社会的参与和合作。

 

First, we need to continue to prevent and resolve major risks in China’s economy, including financial risks. Shadow banking and hidden debt for local governments are serious problems we have to deal with.

 

We will continue to make progress while maintaining stability. In about three years’ time, we will strive to bring the overall leverage ratio under effective control, make the financial system more adaptable and better able to serve the real economy, prevent systemic risks and facilitate better flow of economic activities.

 

We have full confidence and a clear plan to get the job done. Our strategy is to fix the problems on the way forward through reform and development. And our tactic is to pick up the most important issues and find solutions.

 

We have many favorable conditions on our side. The Chinese economy is steadily turning for the better with enduring, robust fundamentals. Huge potential remains to be tapped in urbanization, innovation and the transformation of traditional industries.

 

Our financial system is basically sound with a high savings rate. We have already set out to properly handle a series of risks. Since the fourth quarter of last year, China has had a marginally slower overall leverage ratio growth, which is a good sign.

 

In addition, strengthened risk awareness and changing market expectations on implicit guarantee or moral hazard have created important psychological conditions for us to prevent and control financial risks. I would like to highlight that the build-up of China’s financial risks and our response to them are closely related to the changing global market. We welcome the participation and cooperation of the international community in China’s endeavor to address financial risks, as it is part and parcel of global efforts to uphold world economic stability.

 

二是继续打好精准脱贫攻坚战,大规模减少贫困人口。过去五年,在习近平主席的领导下,中国打响了力度前所未有的脱贫攻坚战,农村贫困人口数量从约1亿人减少到3000万左右。未来三年,我们的任务是基本消灭绝对贫困,实现现行标准下农村贫困人口全部脱贫。今年,我们将减少1000万绝对贫困人口,其中包括实现易地搬迁减贫的280万人。我们认为,这是对国民收入分配格局的重大调整,也是中国人权观的具体体现,将为全球减贫事业作出新贡献。

 

Second, China will continue with smarter, more targeted efforts to lift more people out of poverty. In the last five years, under President Xi’s leadership, we started an unprecedented campaign against poverty. As a result, the number of rural residents living in poverty dropped from nearly 100 million to around 30 million. We have set a target to basically eliminate absolute poverty in three years, which means no single rural resident will be living below the current poverty line.

 

This year alone, China will lift 10 million people from absolute poverty, including 2.8 million who will be relocated from areas suffering from harsh conditions. These poverty alleviation efforts have a major impact on the distribution of national income. Such efforts embody the Chinese approach to human rights, and will contribute to the global cause of poverty reduction.

 

三是继续打好污染防治攻坚战。推动绿色低碳发展是中国人民的强烈愿望,也是对传统增长方式的调整。未来三年,我们将加大污染防治力度,使主要污染物排放总量大幅减少,资源消耗强度降低,生态环境质量总体改善,绿色发展水平明显提升,重点是打赢蓝天保卫战。事实上,我们所做的这件事,就是在采取具体行动信守应对气候变化的承诺,落实好《巴黎协定》。我们将坚定不移地把这件事做下去,也希望和国际社会全面加强合作。

 

Third, China will continue its fight against pollution. Green and low-carbon development is what the Chinese people want the most in a break with the traditional growth model. In the next three years, China will scale up pollution control to substantially cut the total emissions of major pollutants and lower the intensity of resource consumption.

 

Such efforts are expected to improve the environment. They will make our development more eco-friendly and our skies blue again. These are the concrete actions China will take to fulfill its pledges to counter climate change and to honor the Paris Agreement. China will stay committed to improving the environment and work more closely with the rest of the international community in this area.

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