双语:稳中向好的中国经济使千万贫困人口脱贫

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Steady Chinese Growth Is Lifting Millions out of Poverty

The Daily Telegraph Publishes a Signed Article by Ambassador Liu Xiaoming

中国驻英国大使刘晓明在《每日电讯报》发表署名文章

On 2 February 2017, the Daily Telegraph published a signed article by Ambassador Liu Xiaoming entitled “Steady Chinese growth is lifting millions out of poverty”. The full text is as follows:

 

2017年2月2日,英国《每日电讯报》刊登刘晓明大使题为《稳中向好的中国经济使千万贫困人口脱贫》的署名文章。全文如下:

 

Steady Chinese Growth Is Lifting Millions out of Poverty

稳中向好的中国经济使千万贫困人口脱贫

 

Liu Xiaoming

刘晓明

 

In his New Year message, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China lifted another 10 million people out of poverty in 2016. Impressed by this number, some of my British friends came to me for the answer to why China was able to make such a remarkable achievement. I think the answer lies in not only strong and targeted policy measures to relief poverty but also sustained and steady economic growth to deliver greater benefit to more people. A bigger “pie” means that each and everyone’s share will be bigger.

 

不久前,中国国家主席习近平发表新年贺词时宣布,2016年中国有1000多万贫困人口实现了脱贫。一些英国朋友向我表示,习主席提到的这一数字给他们留下非常深刻的印象。为什么中国能取得如此显著的脱贫成就?我认为这不仅得益于中国政府加大扶贫开发,实行精准扶贫,更源于中国经济的持续稳定增长。因为只有做大经济发展的“蛋糕”,才能分好“蛋糕”,让经济发展成果更大程度惠及普通民众。

 

Now, more and more economists have come to the point that, in the coming years, growth in China will not be a U or V-shaped rebound or experience a further dip. It is going to be L-shaped. This L-shaped curve means China’s economic growth, though slower than before, will sustain a steady speed.

 

现在,越来越多学者认为中国经济呈现“L”型走势,即经济增速明显下降后,在一定增速上基本保持平稳运行,未来一段时期内虽难以呈现“U”或“V”型强劲反弹,但也不会继续探底。

 

This curve also means long-term steady growth. Indeed, 6pc to 7pc growth is slower than the double-digit rate a decade ago. However, this slower growth is resulting from the economic transition and upgrading that China has taken initiative to press ahead with and which are necessitated by future long-term growth. It shows that the Chinese economy is coming out of difficulties and entering a phase of “new normal” – with growth speed slightly downed for better quality.

 

我认为这个“L”代表长期稳定增长(Long-Term Growth)。尽管6%-7%的增速与10年前的两位数相比明显放缓,但这是中国经济进入新常态、爬坡过坎的体现,是转型升级、主动调控的结果。

 

Now, growth in China is powered by diverse sources and the economic structure has much improved. Domestic demand has replaced export as the major driver of growth. Innovation is bringing gradual changes to the old resource-intensive and investment-led growth model. As China commits itself to green and low-carbon development, slower yet steady growth helps, to a certain extent, relieve the pressure on resources and environment. So the current growth rate is more reasonable, more sustainable and more conducive to China’s long-term development.

 

现在,中国经济的增长动力更为多元,结构更加优化,正在从出口拉动为主转为内需拉动为主,从要素和投资驱动转为创新驱动。同时,我们走绿色低碳发展之路,现在的增速在一定程度上能缓解资源环境的过载压力。可以说,目前的中高位增速更合理,更可持续,更有利于中国的长远发展。

 

To adapt to the L-shaped growth, China is making extra efforts to advance the supply side reform. This reform aims to solve an acute structural problem in China’s economy – the mismatch between supply and demand. Massive stimulation will be avoided so as to stop unwanted supply and cut excess capacity. Effective supply will be created to meet the fast upgrading consumer needs of the changing demography in China. The result will be a new and upgraded supply-demand balance and economic growth with better quality and higher efficiency.

 

与“L”型走势这一经济新常态相适应,中国正大力推进供给侧结构性改革。供给侧结构性改革针对的是当前中国经济中供给与需求不配套的突出结构性矛盾,适应消费结构加快升级、人口结构发生重大变化的新形势。我们改变过去“大水漫灌式”刺激需求的老路,而是把政策重心转向供给侧,去除没有需求的无效供给,压缩过剩产能,创造适应新需求的有效供给,实现新的高水平供需平衡。只有这样,中国经济的质量和效益才能提升。

 

At present, the challenges and potential risks in the Chinese economy, such as the debt level, the value of RMB, capital flight, etc., are attracting attention around the world. China is fully aware of them and has sufficient policy instruments in its tool kit to tackle these “growing pains”.

 

当前,外界都很关心中国经济面临的各种风险和挑战,如债务水平、汇率波动、资本外流等问题。我们对此既保持清醒认识,也有充足的政策工具,有信心和能力化解各种“成长的烦恼”。

 

In terms of debt risks, total debt in China is only at the average level of the major economies. The share of foreign debt is too small to trigger systemic default. In addition, unlike some countries, China has put the money mostly in investment and construction rather than welfare or consumption. Such debt, backed by assets, will be paid. That is why China is able to lower the leverage ratio of businesses through market-based measures such as debt-to-equity swap.

 

关于债务风险,中国总体债务规模在全球主要经济体中属于中等,外债比例低,触发系统性债务风险的可能性较小。特别值得一提的是,从用途和性质看,中国的债务大部分用于投资和建设,是有回报机制的资产性债务,不像有的国家多用于福利或消费。正因为如此,我们可以通过市场化债转股等方式降低企业杠杆率。

 

With regard to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, one only has to look at the positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy to know that there is no basis for RMB depreciation in the long run. China is not intended to devalue its currency to boost export. In fact, the RMB is showing strength and stability, compared with other global currencies, despite its slight depreciation against the US dollar. China will continue to work towards a market-based exchange rate regime. There is sufficient basis for the RMB to remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

 

关于人民币汇率波动,中国经济的基本面决定了人民币不存在长期贬值的基础,中方也无意通过货币贬值来刺激出口。事实上,人民币在全球货币体系中仍表现出稳定强势货币的特征,对美元贬值幅度相对较小。中国将继续完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,未来人民币完全有条件继续保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

 

As for capital outflow, it is only normal that capital should move in and out of China since China is working hard to build an open economy and a level playing field for businesses. China’s foreign reserve, despite of recent decline, remains the largest in the world, which would run a surplus after covering all China’s foreign debt and six months of imports.

 

As a response to the short-term capital outflow, China has strengthened the regulation and management of the foreign exchange market against “abnormal” operation.

 

关于资本外流,中国正大力提高开放型经济水平,打造公平便利的营商环境,资本有进有出是一种正常现象。中国的外汇储备近期虽有所下降,但仍高居全球首位,覆盖全部外债和6个月进口后还有充足的余量。针对短期性质的资本流出压力,我们将加强对外汇市场的规范管理,抑制“非正常”流出。

 

Being the world’s second largest economy, China has contributed more than 25pc of world growth in recent years. In the age of globalization, we have a saying in Chinese that all countries are closely linked and “shall rise and fall together”. Just as the British often say, “we are all together”. Steady growth in China will continue to boost global growth. I am full of confidence for 2017, just as I am for China to continue to grow at a mid-to-high speed and make new contribution to the world economy.

 

作为全球第二大经济体,中国近年来对世界经济增长的贡献率一直保持在25%以上。正如中国一句古话:“一荣俱荣,一损俱损”。英国也有一句俗语:“我们都在一起”。因此,中国经济稳中有进、稳中向好,才能继续有效拉动世界经济增长。我对2017年充满信心,确信中国经济将继续保持中高速增长,为世界经济增长做出新的贡献。

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