江苏省首届科技翻译竞赛参赛原文

The mathematics to which our youngsters are exposed at school is, with rare exceptions, based on the classical yes-or-no, right-or-wrong type of logic. It doesn’t include one word about probability as a mode of reasoning or as a basis for comparing several alternative conclusions. Geometry, for instance, is strictly devoted to the “if-then” type of reasoning and so to the notion (idea) that any statement is either correct or incorrect.

However, it has been remarked that life is an almost continuous experience of having to draw conclusions from insufficient evidence, and this is what we have to do when we make the trivial decision as to whether or not to carry an umbrella when we leave home for work. This is what a great industry has to do when it decides whether or not to put $50,000,000 into a new plant abroad. In none of these cases¾and indeed, in practically no other case that you can suggest¾can one proceed by saying, ‘I know that A, B, C, etc. are completely and reliably true, and therefore the inevitable conclusion is …’ For there is another mode of reasoning, which does not say: ‘This statement is correct, and its opposite is completely false,’ but which says: ‘There are various alternative possibilities. No one of these is certainly correct and true, and no one certainly incorrect and false. There are varying degrees of plausibility¾of probability¾ for all these alternatives. I can help you understand how these plausibilities compare; I can also tell you how reliable my advice is.’